Saturday, October 07, 2006

Can't figure this one out.

I hated calling in this hand. Just seems he almost never has anything other than 66, 44 or 75, but I apparently still have 27% equity against this range. Once I exclude 75o but keep in 75s (because he limps UTGwhich is more likely with 75s than 75o) it is reduced to 20%, and I even tend to find 66 or 44 more likely than 75 just because it is a more likely limping hand. Since EFro has bracelets and I don't I will believe him for now, but I still felt rather bad about the call. Oh, as for results - I called and he had 75s and the turn was a 6 and i won. :)

dirkb-> http://www.pokerhand.org/?546176
dirkb-> call/fold ?
huadgger> call
CRossiter> call
huadgger> getting like 3-1
dirkb-> hoping he only has straight ? :/
huadgger> if he turns over his hand and its 57 you have to call
dirkb-> yea obv
dirkb-> not if its 44 66 thou´
huadgger> or 57cc
huadgger> the odds of him having one of those hands
huadgger> vs a straight
huadgger> or 55
huadgger> or a draw
huadgger> means you obv have to call
huadgger> getting 3:1
dirkb-> and its a marginal call anyway vs 75
huadgger> isnt
dirkb-> not quite 3-1
huadgger> youre better than 2:1 to win
dirkb-> calling 350
huadgger> vs 57
CRossiter> if his range is 66 44 75 you have 27% equity
dirkb-> couldnt imagine him having anything other than those :/
dirkb-> guess A5cc should be in there
huadgger> 77
huadgger> 88
huadgger> 99
huadgger> tt
huadgger> jj
huadgger> qq
huadgger> kk
huadgger> aa
CRossiter> you think people do that with all those hands? :(
dirkb-> ok we'll give him 5% garbage hands like that
dirkb-> 56cc and A5cc i can imagine
dirkb-> but would be odd to minraise my betout
dirkb-> with those hands
huadgger> would be more odd
huadgger> to minraise the bet with a set
huadgger> on that board
dirkb-> i dunno he has 2 to act behind him
huadgger> so why would you let them see a cheap turn with infi drawing hands
huadgger> youd raise an actual amt to not give them odds
CRossiter> ppl are dumb
dirkb-> i mean i wouldnt
CRossiter> especially w/sets
huadgger> so people are dumb
huadgger> but there is only a 3 hand range he can have?
huadgger> this makes sense.
huadgger> i wouldnt even include 44 or 66 in the range
dirkb-> obv he CAN have more
dirkb-> just think 90% he has those 3
huadgger> 55 and 77 both more likely

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